Philippines Gaming Revenue Faces Projected 19 Percent Drop in 2026

Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation Chairman and CEO Alejandro Tengco delivered a clear warning about the country's gaming outlook during early June 2026, and industry observers paid close attention. Tengco outlined how gross gaming revenue could fall as much as 19 percent this year, landing between Php320 billion and Php350 billion, or roughly US$5.20 billion to US$5.69 billion. That figure sits well below the record Php396.1 billion, equivalent to US$6.44 billion, achieved in 2025.

Key Drivers Behind the Expected Decline

The primary pressure stems from the ongoing Middle East conflict and its ripple effects on consumer spending patterns across the Philippines. Lower-income segments that support online and electronic gaming channels appear especially exposed, since discretionary budgets tighten when global tensions push energy prices and living costs higher. Tengco noted that these external shocks compound earlier adjustments from e-wallet de-linking regulations introduced in prior periods, which already altered how players fund their accounts and how operators process transactions.

Those combined factors create a narrower path for growth in the near term. Electronic gaming revenue, which expanded rapidly during the post-pandemic recovery, now faces headwinds that limit both participation frequency and average spend per session. Traditional land-based venues experience secondary effects as well, because overall household budgets remain under strain.

Tourism Recovery Offers a Counterbalance

Yet Tengco also highlighted one area of resilience that could soften the projected decline. Tourism numbers continue their upward trajectory, with Chinese visitor arrivals rising steadily through the first half of 2026. Increased foot traffic at integrated resorts helps offset some softness in domestic online segments, because inbound tourists tend to favor table games and on-site entertainment during their stays. Industry analysts tracking arrivals data expect this trend to persist through the summer months, providing a modest lift to land-based gross gaming revenue.

Regional operators have already begun adjusting marketing campaigns to capture more of the recovering Chinese market, including targeted promotions at major resort destinations in Manila and Clark. These efforts focus on high-value segments that historically contribute disproportionately to total handle, even when overall visitor volumes remain below pre-pandemic peaks.

Context From 2025 Performance

The 2025 record of Php396.1 billion set a high bar that reflected strong pent-up demand and expanded digital offerings. Electronic gaming platforms captured a larger share of total revenue during that period, partly because convenient funding methods encouraged broader participation. When regulators later enforced e-wallet de-linking rules, operators observed an immediate shift in deposit patterns that carried into early 2026. Tengco's latest forecast incorporates those lingering structural changes alongside the newer geopolitical pressures.

Monthly performance data through the first quarter of 2026 already showed signs of moderation compared with the prior year's pace. While integrated resorts maintained stable table-game hold percentages, the volume of electronic gaming transactions declined in lower-denomination categories most popular with price-sensitive players. These granular shifts align with Tengco's assessment that the full-year total could land noticeably below 2025 levels.

Industry Response and Monitoring

PAGCOR continues to track incoming data on both domestic participation and tourism-driven revenue streams. Tengco emphasized that the agency maintains close coordination with licensed operators to identify early indicators of further softening or unexpected stabilization. Operators, for their part, have accelerated diversification strategies that include loyalty programs aimed at retaining higher-value domestic players while simultaneously courting inbound tourist segments.

Revenue forecasts remain subject to revision as global events evolve and as Chinese visitor arrivals either accelerate or plateau. The agency plans to release updated projections after the second quarter closes, allowing more precise calibration based on actual performance through June 2026.

Conclusion

The statement from PAGCOR leadership provides a data-driven snapshot of how external shocks and prior regulatory adjustments intersect with the Philippines gaming sector. Projections for 2026 reflect a measured downward adjustment from the 2025 record, tempered by the positive contribution of recovering tourism flows. Observers will watch closely to see whether tourism gains can narrow the gap or whether additional pressures widen it further by year-end.